Trump's Iran Endgame: 5 Options Ahead of Peace Talks in Pakistan
Billboards near the Serena Hotel ahead of the second round of talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad. President Donald Trump on Monday sharpened his critic on Iran ahead of the next round of peace talks, insisting he was under no "pressure" to strike a deal even as a fragile ceasefire neared its expiration and negotiations appeared uncertain. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump accused Democrats of trying to undermine Washington's position during the conflict and declared that he was "winning the war by a lot," citing what he described as heavy Iranian losses. He also said a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place until a deal was reached, which he predicted would happen "relatively quickly." The next round of talks, expected in Islamabad, has been clouded by uncertainty as the ceasefire deadline approaches. Pakistan's government has said it is deploying thousands of security personnel to protect negotiators. US officials said Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Islamabad, while Iranian officials indicated that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf would attend if Vance does. Ghalibaf, who has played a leading role in earlier negotiations, struck a defiant tone. "Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table — in his own imagination — into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering," he said on social media. "We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield." Against that backdrop, Trump faces a set of choices, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal: Trump has outlined conditions that administration officials describe as non-negotiable: Iran must freeze uranium enrichment for at least 20 years, remove its highly enriched stockpile and end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Officials say weeks of US and Israeli strikes have severely weakened Iran's military, while a US blockade of Iranian ports has intensified pressure on its economy. Iran, however, has refused to ease its position on the strait and has signaled it will not abandon its nuclear program. Holding firm could force Tehran to concede — or risk a return to open conflict. A second outcome from the peace talks in Islamabad would the two sides leaving with a draft agreement extending the ceasefire but not a final deal. This would allow room for further negotiations from both sides without engaging in immediate escalation. However, this move would also lead to prolonged uncertainty over the happenings in the Middle East, especially the volatile situation of the Strait of Hormuz. Such a step would allow negotiations to continue while avoiding an immediate escalation, though it would also prolong uncertainty. Officials and analysts say a compromise remains possible, though politically difficult. One proposal under discussion would see Iran agree to a 20-year limit on higher-level uranium enrichment, with more flexibility after the first decade to conduct research or maintain a limited stockpile of low-enriched uranium. According to the report, Trump may also accept a deal which sees Iran giving up its stockpiles of 60% or 20% enriched uranium while retaining lower-level material. Trump has warned he is not inclined to extend the ceasefire if talks fail. The US President has already threatened to strike Iran's power infrastructure if the negotiations failed, added to the fact that Israel, too, would launch simultaneous attacks. However, fresh hostitilites would also carry risks for the US as Iran would strengthen its stronghold over the Strait of Hormuz, thereby disrupting supplies again and leading to shocks across global oil markets. Trump has already been fighting against rising tensions at home over US involvement in Iran. Defense officials have also expressed concern about the strain on US munitions stockpiles needed for other global contingencies. The least likely — but still discussed — option is for Trump to abandon the negotiations entirely. Some US officials and allied diplomats have raised concerns privately that such a move would leave a weakened but intact Iranian government in place, able to continue exerting pressure on the Strait of Hormuz while retaining the technical capacity to rebuild its nuclear program.





